A Few Big Stocks Don – t Tell the Whole Market Story, stocks market.#Stocks
A Few Big Stocks Don t Tell the Whole Market Story
Posted July 19, 2017 by Ben Carlson
Every year it seems investors worry that far too few stocks are carrying the market higher. The problem is most people never take the next step to see how often this actually happens. This is a piece I wrote for Bloomberg myth-busting the idea that a few stocks up big are a problem for the stock market.
Investors are becoming increasingly worried that a few stocks seem to be driving the returns in the S P 500 this year. Apple is up more than 33 percent in 2017. Facebook and Amazon shares are both up around 28 percent. It’s estimated that these three companies account for almost one-third of the gain in the S P 500.
The worry is that, with the gains so concentrated in so few names, the market rally is getting long in the tooth. The problem with this argument is that this is how it usually works with market-cap weighted indexes very few names account for the majority of the gains.
Investor nervousness over concentrated gains in the markets is nothing new. The FANG stocks Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google accounted for a large part of the S P 500 gains in 2015, as well. AQR’s Cliff Asness looked at the impact of individual stocks on the S P 500 from 1994 to 2014 and compared those results to the 2015 FANG-driven market. Asness showed what the impact on overall market performance would have been if you removed the best-performing stocks each year (For example, the top 10 performing stocks in 2015 accounted for 3.7 percent of the returns, which would have made the 1.4 percent total return on the index negative).
From 1994 to 2014, the S P 500 returned 9.3 percent a year. The top 10 stocks were good for 4.1 percent, or just shy of 45 percent of the total gains. So it’s perfectly normal that a handful of the 500 stocks in the index account for a large portion of the gains each year.
There is, however, another indicator that we can look at to gauge the market’s health. Market breadth is a simple ratio that looks at the number of advancing stocks versus the number of declining ones.
Let’s assume the advance-decline line is 1,000. If the next day there are 350 stocks that rise and 150 that fall, then it would net out at 200 and the next reading would be 1,200. If more stocks are consistently falling than rising, then the advance-decline line would be falling, and if more stocks are consistently rising than falling, then the advance-decline line would be rising.
During rising stock markets you can use an indicator like the advance-decline line to confirm that the uptrend is still in place. When the overall stock market is rising but more individual securities are declining than rising, that can be a signal that the market is not “acting right” and the uptrend could be in trouble. It could be signaling that there could be a change in direction coming.
The hope would be that when stocks are at new all-time highs so is the advance/decline line. You would want them to confirm each other. If there’s a divergence you can try to figure out if something is amiss.
For example, during the technology bubble in the 1990s there was an evident divergence between stocks and the advance-decline line:
The advance-decline line was crashing beginning in early-1999, while stocks continued to rise for another year or so. The fact that so few stocks were carrying the market higher with a falling advance-decline line was a big warning sign for the coming dotcom crash.
Now look at the S P 500 versus market breadth since 2013:
There have been divergences in this time but, for the most part, the advance-decline line has tracked the stock market during the most recent rally.
Market breadth is not the be-all-end-all tell in the markets, because no single indicator works all the time. The advance-decline line did fall before the stock market in late 2007 before the financial crisis. But recent market corrections in 2010, 2011 and 2012 saw no divergence between market breadth and the stock market. Market volatility doesn’t always follow the same pattern.
Nothing has a perfect market track record, yet looking at the underlying securities in the index to get a better sense of how things appear beneath the surface of the average can give you a better sense of how the markets are behaving. Calling a market top is never easy, but a market breadth divergence is an indicator investors should keep an eye on as a potential warning sign.
Originally published on Bloomberg View in 2017. Reprinted with permission. The opinions expressed are those of the author.
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The forward progression and regulation in legal cannabis and marijuana stocks is driving the industry to new heights. It’s also allowing current marijuana stocks to battle through resistances levels as things such as expansion, higher quality marijuana goods, innovative product development are increasing in popularity with consumers worldwide. Here are three marijuana stocks that are taking their business to new heights in the industry: PotNetwork Holdings, Inc. (POTN), GT Biopharma, Inc. (OXISD) and 22nd Century Group, Inc. (XXII).
PotNetwork Holding, Inc. (POTN) has been striding in the industry through its subsidiary Diamond CBD. The company recently announced that its Q2 and year to date operating results and the company reported revenues of over $5 million for the first 6 months of fiscal 2017 and a net profit of $369,237. The company closed the first half of 2017 with a positive net cash flow of $395,009. The company also put out a recent press release stating they have engaged with a PCAOB registered CPA firm to audit its financials.
“We believe that the timing for this action is now. In consideration of the amount of momentum built up over the past 6 months, coupled with reported revenues of $5,077,625 for the first 6 months of fiscal 2017, the only logical next step was to initiate the auditing process, whereby the market can recognize the significance and legitimacy of the Company’s recent growth,” stated Gary Blum, Chief Executive Officer, PotNetwork Holding, Inc.
Since the beginning of May, (POTN) has seen a price per share increase of 257.64%. On May 4th the stock saw lows of $0.017, to Thursday’s (9/7) opening price of $0.0608.
GT Biopharma, Inc. (OXISD) announced on Thursday (9/7) that they have appointed a new Chief Medical Officer (CMO) to their executive team. The company appointed former Pfizer CMO/Vice President and Senior Director, Dr. Raymond Urbanksi. Dr. Urbanksi spent eight years with Pfizer and oversaw the company’s breast cancer products and a variety of other products.
Now we complete our executive management team with another world class executive in Dr. Raymond Urbanski as our new CMO. His expertise in oncology assets and quick-to-market 505(b)2 products is timely for GT Biopharma Inc. Ray s big pharma and biotech expertise is custom made for the assets of GT Biopharma. He will be instrumental in helping to guide our highly sought after oncology BiKE and TriKE platform technologies to commercial success. We are excited to have our Dream Team in place, Mr. Anthony Cataldo stated.
In the last two weeks of trading, (OXISD) has seen a price per share increase of 77.39%, from lows of $5.75 on Aug. 23rd to Thursday’s daily highs (9/7) of $10.20.
22nd Century Group, Inc. (XXII) is a plant biotechnology company that is focused on genetic engineering and plant breeding which permits the increase or decrease of the level of nicotine in tobacco plants and the level of cannabinoids in cannabis plants. The company’s main goal in marijuana is to develop a proprietary cannabis strain for new medicines and agriculture crops.
“More than $100 Million of independent research has demonstrated that 22nd Century’s proprietary Very Low Nicotine tobacco could save many millions of lives and will prevent future generations of young people from becoming addicted to cigarettes,” stated Henry Sicignano, III, President and Chief Executive Officer of 22nd Century Group. “22nd Century’s technology is proven. The FDA plan is already feasible. The time to implement a mandate of Very Low Nicotine tobacco in all combustible cigarettes sold in the United States has arrived.”
In the last month of trading, (XXII) has increased 70.80% from lows of $1.37 on July 26th to intra day highs during Thursday’s (9/7) trading session of $2.34.
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So you’ve decided to invest in the stock market. Congratulations! In his 2005 book “The Future for Investors,” Jeremy Siegel showed that, in the long run, investing in stocks has handily outperformed investing in bonds, Treasury bills, gold or cash. In the short term, one or another asset may outperform stocks, but overall stocks have historically been the winning path.
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But there are so many ways to invest in stocks. Individual stocks, mutual funds, index funds, ETFs, domestic, foreign – how can you decide what is right for you? This article will address several issues that you, as a new (or not-so-new) investor, might want to consider so that you can rest more easily while letting your money grow.
Risk Taker, Risk Averse or in the Middle?
You may be eager to get started so that you, too, can make those fabulous returns you hear so much about, but slow down and take a moment to contemplate some simple questions. The time spent now to consider the following will save you money down the road.
What kind of person are you? Are you a risk taker, willing to throw money at a chance to make a lot of money or would you prefer a more “sure” thing? What would be your likely response to a 10% drop in a single stock in one day or a 35% drop over the course of a few weeks? Would you sell it all in a panic?
The answers to these and similar questions will lead you to consider different types of equity investments, such as mutual or index funds versus individual stocks. If you are naturally not someone to take risks, and feel uncomfortable doing so but still want to invest in stocks, the best bet for you might be mutual funds or index funds. This is because they are well diversified and contain many different stocks. This reduces risk – and doesn’t require individual stock research.
How much time and interest do you have for investing?
Should you invest in funds, stocks or both? The answer depends on how much time you wish to devote to this endeavor. Careful selection of mutual or index funds would let you invest your money, leaving the hard work of picking stocks to the fund manager. Index funds are even simpler in that they move up or down according to the type of company, industry or market they are designed to track.
Individual stock investing is the most time consuming as it requires you to make judgments about management, earnings and future prospects. As an investor, you are attempting to distinguish between a money-making stock and financial disaster. You need to know what they do, how they make their money, the risks, the future prospects and much more.
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It is best that you not be exposed to only one type of asset. For instance, don’t put all of your money in small biotech companies. Yes, the potential gain can be quite high, but what will happen to your investment if the Food and Drug Administration starts rejecting a higher percentage of new drugs? Your entire portfolio would be negatively impacted.
It is better to be diversified across several different sectors such as real estate (a real estate investment trust is one possibility), consumer goods, commodities, insurance, etc., rather than focusing on one or two or three, as above. Consider diversifying across asset classes, as well, by keeping some money in bonds and cash, rather than being 100% invested in stocks. How much to have in these different sectors and classes is up to you, but being invested more broadly lessens the risk of losing it all at any one time.
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If you are just starting out, think seriously about investing most of your money in a couple of index funds, such as one tracking the broad market (e.g. the S ?>
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