The stock market is vanishing
The stock market isn’t what it used to be.
As noted by Steven DeSanctis, equity strategist at Jefferies, the sheer number of companies listed on stock exchanges has been dropping off precipitously.
The number of firms with shares publicly listed in the University of Chicago’s Center for Research in Security Prices aggregate index has fallen to 3,267 from a peak of 6,364 in 1997.
This, in fact, is the lowest number of listed stocks since 1984.
There are a number of possible reasons for this. Here’s DeSanctis’ breakdown:
“Between the lack of IPO activity. the pick-up of M A, and buybacks, the US equity world is becoming smaller and smaller, and this could be one of many reasons why active managers are lagging behind their indexes. Companies may not want to come public due to the additional cost of Sarbanes-Oxley or the fact that the private market has become a bigger source of financing than it has been in the past.”
While the answer is probably some combination of these factors, DeSanctis also thinks that the declining number of stocks may be affecting the performance of many professional stock pickers.
The argument is that with fewer companies to choose from, active managers are forced to crowd into certain stocks. Crowding makes it impossible to differentiate returns and causes these managers, in DeSanctis’ mind, to fall short of their benchmarks.
SEE ALSO: ALBERT EDWARDS: The crutch holding up the US economy is about to be ‘kicked away’
#stock market news
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Markets and Macroeconomics
#stock market news today
The Railways need to evaluate whether it should continue to have 125 hospitals, 600 polyclinics and 100 schools directly under its wing, he said.
Outgoing RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan today rejected the idea of the government taking a special dividend from the central bank for recapitalisation of public sector lenders, saying there is no free lunch .
India and Vietnam today called for a reform of the UN and an expansion of the Security Council in both the permanent and non-permanent categories of membership, with enhanced representation from developing countries.
Country s largest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp plans to launch 15 new products in domestic as well as international markets this fiscal, a top company official said today.
Find the Jeep pricing absurd? Here s the reason and why it isn t necessarily bad
New Jaguar sets record as fastest selling car for Tata Jaguar Land Rover
Stable regulatory framework important for investment in auto sector
The system, which would utilise the same machine learning technology used in Microsoft s artificial intelligence (AI) assistant Cortana, is designed to have a long lifecycle.
Samsung announces swap for Galaxy Note 7 with Galaxy S7 variants
Xiaomi Mi Max: Phablet with long-lasting battery for heavy users
From UrbanClap to OTJ247, take to tech to slay the chores and really enjoy the festive season
Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik today launched the Biju Kanya Ratna Yojana (BKRY) and inaugurated 1,000 anganwadi buildings here as part of the celebration marking birth centenary of legendary Biju Patnaik.
The extraordinary life of Mother Teresa, who worked relentlessly for the upliftment of the destitute and who will be declared a saint by the Roman Catholic Church, must be brought alive on the silver screen, says India s acclaimed veteran filmmaker Shyam Benegal.
#stock market update
An Honest Stock Market Update
Aug 12, 2014 at 11:16AM
NEW YORK — Stocks gained momentum on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 48 points, reversing losses from last week’s decline.
Experts hailed both moves as a “remarkable, textbook example of pure statistical chance,” chalking up Monday’s gains to a couple random marginal buyers being slightly more motivated than a few random marginal sellers.
“Imagine you pick 1 million random people from around the world every day,” said Toby McDade, chief investment officer of Momentum Fee Capital Management. “Some days, 51% would be in a good mood, 49% in a bad mood. The next day maybe it’s the opposite. Other days, random chance could mean 8% of people are really pissed off for no real reason. This is basically what the market is on a day-to-day basis,” he said.
Asked what his clients thought of this view, Mr. McDade laughed. “Oh my God, you think I could tell my clients that? How could I justify my salary?” Clients were told Monday’s gain was caused by a mix of reversing geopolitical instability, shifting uncertainty patterns, a risk-on atmosphere, and a perfect storm of beta meeting sigma. None knew what those words meant.
American corporations earned $4.62 billion of net income on Monday. Financial advisors, analysts, and brokers, collected $630 million in fees. No media outlet reported these figures, despite being the two most important numbers necessary to understanding investing.
A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the economy added 209,000 jobs last month. An economist from a right-leaning think tank called the report disappointing. Another at a left-leaning organization called it encouraging. Neither has a reputable track record. Both yelled. The jobs report has a margin of error of plus or minus 100,000, and will be revised seven times in the coming years. No one whose outlook was swayed by the report said they care about these details.
Marc Faber appeared on TV predicting a 20% stock market crash within the next six months, repeating a call he has made bi-weekly since the Carter administration. Another pundit explained that his last failed prediction would have been right if only he hadn’t been so wrong. Executives of financial TV networks met to discuss why ratings are at decade lows.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell from 2.42% to 2.38%. Nobody knows why.
An FDIC report showed banks increased lending last quarter. Analysts called this a new bubble created by the Fed, though it’s what any rational person would expect to see happening during a recovery after a deep recession.
In Nevada, 52-year-old Ronald Palmer put his life savings into gold after spending 10 minutes reading something on Google about inflation written by a guy who learned about inflation by spending 10 minutes on Google.
Nineteen-year-old Travis Baker spent the afternoon day-trading penny stocks because his prefrontal cortex isn’t yet fully developed and he couldn’t recognize risk-reward trade-offs if they hit him in the face.
An army of bloggers reported from their parents’ basements that Apple CEO Tim Cook doesn’t understand technology. Reached out to for comment, Cook giggled, shook his head, and said one of his main regrets in life is not taking the advice of unemployed anonymous bloggers.
Long-term investors finished Monday one day closer to their goals.
Analysts expect the news to be no different tomorrow.
Check back every Tuesday and Friday for Morgan Housel’s columns on finance and economics.
*This article is fake, but just barely.
Markets Data Center Mobile – Company Data, Indexes, Stock Quotes – More – Wall Street Journal #business #cards #free
#stock market prices
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#the stock market
The stock market has already picked the next U.S. president
The GOP is traditionally known as the party of Wall Street, but this year investors, for the most part, are betting against the Republican standard-bearer.
“The market appears to have decided not only that [Hillary] Clinton will win, but that it won’t be close,” David Woo, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a report distributed Monday. “Investors like landslide victories.”
Woo noted that the S P 500 has risen more than 4% since July 5, which marks the beginning of the 90-trading-day countdown to the election on Nov. 8. During years when presidential candidates won by a margin of more than 80% of Electoral College votes, the S P 500 posted average returns of 8.4% in the 90 days leading up to the election, as this chart illustrates:
The last time stocks outperformed the current rally at the halfway point was when Ronald Reagan won in a landslide against Walter Mondale in 1984.
“To us, this implies that the market is expecting Hillary Clinton to either maintain or increase her already sizable lead over Donald Trump in the opinion polls,” Woo said, citing the Iowa Electronic Markets. an indicator giving Clinton an 80% chance of beating Trump.
The IEM is a futures market operated for research purposes by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business.
Earlier this year, Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the S P 500 SPX, +0.42% has a fairly good record of predicting election results.
Since 1944, the incumbent person or party was reelected 82% of the time when the S P 500 rose between July 31 and Oct. 31, according to Stovall. The only exceptions were in 1968 and 1980, when there were popular third-party candidates in the picture.
“Whenever the S P 500 fell in price during these three months, however, it signaled the replacement of the incumbent 86% of the time,” he said.
The latest polling numbers show Clinton leading Trump in most voter surveys, according to news and data aggregator RealClearPolitics.
The S P 500 hit a record high of 2,193.81 on Aug. 15 and is poised to extend its rally to six straight months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.39% also is flirting with a slight gain in August—which would be its seventh monthly rise in a row, according to FactSet.
Meanwhile, the market is also expecting a split Congress and very little change in policy, according to Woo.
The volatility of the euro-dollar pairing EURUSD, -0.3751% which the strategist views as a good proxy to measure the risk of change in the U.S. versus the rest of the world, is at a 2016 low, implying subdued expectations for policy change.
“The combination of a Democratic president and a split Congress likely means gridlock,” Woo said. “If this scenario materializes, the experience of the past six years suggests there is little chance of a major change in the fundamental economic policies of the most important country in the world in the foreseeable future.”
As a result, investors could expect lower interest rates and a weaker dollar. But in the event the same party wins the White House and control of Congress, the greenback will strengthen and rates will rise, Woo said.
Copyright 2016 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Euro Tullett Prebon: EURUSD
Stocks Basics: What Causes Stock Prices To Change?
Stock prices change every day as a result of market forces. By this we mean that share prices change because of supply and demand. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.
Understanding supply and demand is easy. What is difficult to comprehend is what makes people like a particular stock and dislike another stock. This comes down to figuring out what news is positive for a company and what news is negative. There are many answers to this problem and just about any investor you ask has their own ideas and strategies.
That being said, the principal theory is that the price movement of a stock indicates what investors feel a company is worth. Don’t equate a company’s value with the stock price. The value of a company is its market capitalization. which is the stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding. For example, a company that trades at $100 per share and has 1 million shares outstanding has a lesser value than a company that trades at $50 that has 5 million shares outstanding ($100 x 1 million = $100 million while $50 x 5 million = $250 million). To further complicate things, the price of a stock doesn’t only reflect a company’s current value, it also reflects the growth that investors expect in the future.
The most important factor that affects the value of a company is its earnings. Earnings are the profit a company makes, and in the long run no company can survive without them. It makes sense when you think about it. If a company never makes money, it isn’t going to stay in business. Public companies are required to report their earnings four times a year (once each quarter). Wall Street watches with rabid attention at these times, which are referred to as earnings seasons. The reason behind this is that analysts base their future value of a company on their earnings projection. If a company’s results surprise (are better than expected), the price jumps up. If a company’s results disappoint (are worse than expected), then the price will fall.
Of course, it’s not just earnings that can change the sentiment towards a stock (which, in turn, changes its price). It would be a rather simple world if this were the case! During the dotcom bubble, for example, dozens of internet companies rose to have market capitalizations in the billions of dollars without ever making even the smallest profit. As we all know, these valuations did not hold, and most internet companies saw their values shrink to a fraction of their highs. Still, the fact that prices did move that much demonstrates that there are factors other than current earnings that influence stocks. Investors have developed literally hundreds of these variables, ratios and indicators. Some you may have already heard of, such as the price/earnings ratio. while others are extremely complicated and obscure with names like Chaikin oscillator or moving average convergence divergence .
So, why do stock prices change? The best answer is that nobody really knows for sure. Some believe that it isn’t possible to predict how stock prices will change, while others think that by drawing charts and looking at past price movements, you can determine when to buy and sell. The only thing we do know is that stocks are volatile and can change in price extremely rapidly.
The important things to grasp about this subject are the following:
1. At the most fundamental level, supply and demand in the market determines stock price.
2. Price times the number of shares outstanding (market capitalization) is the value of a company. Comparing just the share price of two companies is meaningless.
3. Theoretically, earnings are what affect investors’ valuation of a company, but there are other indicators that investors use to predict stock price. Remember, it is investors’ sentiments, attitudes and expectations that ultimately affect stock prices.
4. There are many theories that try to explain the way stock prices move the way they do. Unfortunately, there is no one theory that can explain everything.
80% Stock Market Crash To Strike in 2016, Economist Warns – The Sovereign Investor #what #is #the #stock #market
80% Stock Market Crash To Strike in 2016, Economist Warns
Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash.
Jim Rogers, who founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, went apocalyptic when he said, “A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans.”
Mark Faber, Dr. Doom himself, recently told CNBC that “investors are on the Titanic” and stocks are about to “endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.”
And the prophetic economist Andrew Smithers warns, “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”
Smithers backs up his prediction using a ratio which proves that the only time in history stocks were this risky was 1929 and 1999. And we all know what happened next. Stocks fell by 89% and 50%, respectively.
Even the Royal Bank of Scotland says the markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the 2008 crisis. They told their clients to Sell Everything because in a crowded hall, the exit doors are small.
Blue chip stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and IBM will plunge.
But there is one distinct warning that should send chills down your spine … that of James Dale Davidson. Davidson is the famed economist who correctly predicted the collapse of 1999 and 2007.
Davidson now warns, “There are three key economic indicators screaming SELL. They don’t imply that a 50% collapse is looming it’s already at our doorstep.”
And if Davidson calls for a 50% market correction, one should pay heed.
Editor s Note: American seniors have been worried about our nation s ability to continue to pay out Social Security. Leaked Reports.
Indeed, his predictions have been so accurate, he’s been invited to shake hands and counsel the likes of former presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton — and he’s had the good fortune to befriend and convene with George Bush Sr. Steve Forbes, Donald Trump, Margaret Thatcher, Sir Roger Douglas and even Boris Yeltsin.
They know that when Davidson makes a prediction, he backs it up. True to form, in a new controversial video, Davidson uses 20 unquestionable charts to prove his point that a 50% stock market crash is here.
Most alarming of all, is what Davidson says will cause the collapse. It has nothing to do with the China meltdown, Wall Street speculation or even the presidential election. Instead, it is linked back to a little-known economic “curse” that our Founding Fathers warned our elected officials about … a curse that was recently triggered.
And although our future may seem bleak, as Davidson says, “There is no need to fall victim to the future. If you are on the right side of what’s ahead, you could seize opportunities that come along once, maybe twice, in a lifetime.”
Perhaps most importantly, in this new video presentation, Davidson reveals what he and his family are doing to prepare right now. (It’s unconventional and even controversial, but proven to work.)
While Davidson intended the video for a private audience only, original viewers leaked it out and now thousands view this video every day.
One anonymous viewer wrote: “Davidson uses clear evidence that spells out the looming collapse, and he does it in a simple language that anyone can understand.” (Indeed, Davidson uses a sandcastle, a $5 bill, and straightforward analogies to prove his points.)
With his permission, I reposted the video on a private website. Click here to watch it now
#stock market quotes
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#daily stock market
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Ahead of Wall Street
Friday September 2, 2016
(This is Brian Hamilton filling in for Mark Vickery while he is on vacation)
Stock futures inched forward today, as all eyes will be on this morning s unemployment rate, and nonfarm payrolls data. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.8% from 4.9%, and is seen as the last major hurdle for the Feds before they decide to raise rates or not during their September meeting.
Oil prices shot up overnight as Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he would like for Russia and OPEC to make a deal regarding a production cap. President Putin went on to say that he would likely support a plan to crimp production at the G20 summit in China next week. Lastly, Putin said that Russia is prepared to sell a 19.5% stake in Rosneft PJSC, the country s largest listed oil producer, as early as the end of 2016.
In Europe, producer prices in the euro region rose by +0.1%, the lowest monthly reading since April. Also, the European Union started their two day meetings today; the major issues being discussed are the fallout from the Brexit, and global banks attempting to preserve their access to the single market.
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