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Nasdaq Stock Market, Stock Quotes – Stock Exchange News, the stock market.#The #stock #market


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Greenspan Sees No Stock Excess, Warns of Bond Market Bubble, bond market news.#Bond #market

Greenspan Sees No Stock Excess, Warns of Bond Market Bubble

Bond market news

Bond market news

Heeding Alan Greenspan’s Bond Bubble Warning

Equity bears hunting for excess in the stock market might be better off worrying about bond prices, Alan Greenspan says. That s where the actual bubble is, and when it pops, it ll be bad for everyone.

By any measure, real long-term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable, the former Federal Reserve chairman, 91, said in an interview. When they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast. We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace.

While the consensus of Wall Street forecasters is still for low rates to persist, Greenspan isn t alone in warning they will break higher quickly as the era of global central-bank monetary accommodation ends. Deutsche Bank AG s Binky Chadha says real Treasury yields sit far below where actual growth levels suggest they should be. Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, says it s only a matter of time before inflationary pressures hit the bond market.

The real problem is that when the bond-market bubble collapses, long-term interest rates will rise, Greenspan said. We are moving into a different phase of the economy — to a stagflation not seen since the 1970s. That is not good for asset prices.

Bond market news

Stocks, in particular, will suffer with bonds, as surging real interest rates will challenge one of the few remaining valuation cases that looks more gently upon U.S. equity prices, Greenspan argues. While hardly universally accepted, the theory underpinning his view, known as the Fed Model, holds that as long as bonds are rallying faster than stocks, investors are justified in sticking with the less-inflated asset.

Right now, the model shows U.S. stocks at one of the most compelling levels ever relative to bonds. Using Greenspan s reference of 10-year inflation-adjusted bond yields, currently around 0.47 percent, the gap with the S P 500 s earnings yield at around 4.7 percent, is 21 percent higher than the 20-year average. That justifies records in major equity benchmarks and P/E ratios near the highest since the financial crisis.

If rates start rising quickly, investors would be advised to abandon stocks apace, Greenspan s argument holds. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist David Kostin names the threat of rising inflation as one reason he isn t joining Wall Street bulls in upping year-end estimates for the S P 500.

While persistently low inflation would imply a fair value of 2,650 on the benchmark gauge, the more likely case is a narrowing of the gap between earnings and bond yields, Kostin says. He is sticking to his estimate that the index will finish the year at 2,400, implying a drop of about 3 percent from current levels.

That s no slam dunk, as stocks have proven resilient to bond routs so far in the eight-year bull market. While the 10-year Treasury yield has peaked above 3 percent only a few times in the past six years, sudden spikes in yields in 2013 and after the 2016 election didn t slow stocks from their grind higher.

Those shocks to the bond market proved short-lived, though, as tepid U.S. growth combined with low inflation to keep real and nominal long-term yields historically low.

That era could end soon, with the Fed widely expected to announce plans for unwinding its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and central banks around the world talking about scaling back stimulus.

The biggest mispricing in our view across asset classes is government bonds, Deutsche Bank s Chadha said in an interview. We should start to see inflation move up in the second half of the year.


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Stock Market College, Learn how to trade in Financial Markets, stock market websites.#Stock #market

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If you would like financial freedom, a chance to become your own boss and learn to trade like a professional broker, enquire or sign up for the Stock Market College Trading Course today!

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Today s Stock Market News and Analysis, stock market update.#Stock #market #update


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Stock Market Crash of 1929 – Facts & Summary, stock market update.#Stock #market #update


Stock Market Crash of 1929

1929 Stock Market Crash

Black Thursday brings the roaring twenties to a screaming halt, ushering in a world-wide an economic depression.

Stock Market Crash of 1929

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Stock Market Crash of 1929

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Introduction

On October 29, 1929, Black Tuesday hit Wall Street as investors traded some 16 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange in a single day. Billions of dollars were lost, wiping out thousands of investors. In the aftermath of Black Tuesday, America and the rest of the industrialized world spiraled downward into the Great Depression (1929-39), the deepest and longest-lasting economic downturn in the history of the Western industrialized world up to that time.

1929 Stock Market Crash

During the 1920s, the U.S. stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929, after a period of wild speculation. By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stocks in great excess of their real value. Among the other causes of the eventual market collapse were low wages, the proliferation of debt, a struggling agricultural sector and an excess of large bank loans that could not be liquidated.

Did You Know?

The New York Stock Exchange was founded in 1817, although its origins date back to 1792 when a group of stockbrokers and merchants signed an agreement under a buttonwood tree on Wall Street.

Stock prices began to decline in September and early October 1929, and on October 18 the fall began. Panic set in, and on October 24, Black Thursday, a record 12,894,650 shares were traded. Investment companies and leading bankers attempted to stabilize the market by buying up great blocks of stock, producing a moderate rally on Friday. On Monday, however, the storm broke anew, and the market went into free fall. Black Monday was followed by Black Tuesday (October 29), in which stock prices collapsed completely and 16,410,030 shares were traded on the New York Stock Exchange in a single day. Billions of dollars were lost, wiping out thousands of investors, and stock tickers ran hours behind because the machinery could not handle the tremendous volume of trading.

1929 Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression

After October 29, 1929, stock prices had nowhere to go but up, so there was considerable recovery during succeeding weeks. Overall, however, prices continued to drop as the United States slumped into the Great Depression, and by 1932 stocks were worth only about 20 percent of their value in the summer of 1929. The stock market crash of 1929 was not the sole cause of the Great Depression, but it did act to accelerate the global economic collapse of which it was also a symptom. By 1933, nearly half of America’s banks had failed, and unemployment was approaching 15 million people, or 30 percent of the workforce.

Relief and reform measures enacted by the administration of President Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882-1945) helped lessen the worst effects of the Great Depression; however, the U.S. economy would not fully turn around until after 1939, when World War II (1939-45) revitalized American industry.

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Nasdaq Stock Market, Stock Quotes – Stock Exchange News, stock market update.#Stock #market #update


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Today s Stock Market News and Analysis, stock market results.#Stock #market #results

Posted in News - 20/03/2018 - 0 Comment

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Quantified Stock Market Trading Strategies – Systems, stock market results.#Stock #market #results

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Back Tested RSI25 Strategy Shows Two Buys for Monday

By Michael Carr on December 27, 2014

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Kevin Haggerty s Commentary for 10/13/17

By Kevin Haggerty on October 13, 2017

The SPX made an RST monthly high in 5/2015 at 2135 with entry below the 6/2015 monthly low close at 2063 versus the long-term 8.6-year cycle date of 2015.75 and Read More

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It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any individual trader or trading system published by Company are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which be realized by you. In addition, the indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features of Company’s products (collectively, the “Information”) are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Examples presented on Company’s website are for educational purposes only. Such set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the Information in making any investment. Rather, you should use the Information only as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor and tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING AND MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY BROKERAGE AND OTHER SLIPPAGE FEES. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.


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Stock Market Data – Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S – P 500, today stock market.#Today

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