The stock market is vanishing
The stock market isn’t what it used to be.
As noted by Steven DeSanctis, equity strategist at Jefferies, the sheer number of companies listed on stock exchanges has been dropping off precipitously.
The number of firms with shares publicly listed in the University of Chicago’s Center for Research in Security Prices aggregate index has fallen to 3,267 from a peak of 6,364 in 1997.
This, in fact, is the lowest number of listed stocks since 1984.
There are a number of possible reasons for this. Here’s DeSanctis’ breakdown:
“Between the lack of IPO activity. the pick-up of M A, and buybacks, the US equity world is becoming smaller and smaller, and this could be one of many reasons why active managers are lagging behind their indexes. Companies may not want to come public due to the additional cost of Sarbanes-Oxley or the fact that the private market has become a bigger source of financing than it has been in the past.”
While the answer is probably some combination of these factors, DeSanctis also thinks that the declining number of stocks may be affecting the performance of many professional stock pickers.
The argument is that with fewer companies to choose from, active managers are forced to crowd into certain stocks. Crowding makes it impossible to differentiate returns and causes these managers, in DeSanctis’ mind, to fall short of their benchmarks.
SEE ALSO: ALBERT EDWARDS: The crutch holding up the US economy is about to be ‘kicked away’
#stock market news
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Markets and Macroeconomics
#stock market news today
The Railways need to evaluate whether it should continue to have 125 hospitals, 600 polyclinics and 100 schools directly under its wing, he said.
Outgoing RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan today rejected the idea of the government taking a special dividend from the central bank for recapitalisation of public sector lenders, saying there is no free lunch .
India and Vietnam today called for a reform of the UN and an expansion of the Security Council in both the permanent and non-permanent categories of membership, with enhanced representation from developing countries.
Country s largest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp plans to launch 15 new products in domestic as well as international markets this fiscal, a top company official said today.
Find the Jeep pricing absurd? Here s the reason and why it isn t necessarily bad
New Jaguar sets record as fastest selling car for Tata Jaguar Land Rover
Stable regulatory framework important for investment in auto sector
The system, which would utilise the same machine learning technology used in Microsoft s artificial intelligence (AI) assistant Cortana, is designed to have a long lifecycle.
Samsung announces swap for Galaxy Note 7 with Galaxy S7 variants
Xiaomi Mi Max: Phablet with long-lasting battery for heavy users
From UrbanClap to OTJ247, take to tech to slay the chores and really enjoy the festive season
Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik today launched the Biju Kanya Ratna Yojana (BKRY) and inaugurated 1,000 anganwadi buildings here as part of the celebration marking birth centenary of legendary Biju Patnaik.
The extraordinary life of Mother Teresa, who worked relentlessly for the upliftment of the destitute and who will be declared a saint by the Roman Catholic Church, must be brought alive on the silver screen, says India s acclaimed veteran filmmaker Shyam Benegal.
#stock market update
An Honest Stock Market Update
Aug 12, 2014 at 11:16AM
NEW YORK — Stocks gained momentum on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 48 points, reversing losses from last week’s decline.
Experts hailed both moves as a “remarkable, textbook example of pure statistical chance,” chalking up Monday’s gains to a couple random marginal buyers being slightly more motivated than a few random marginal sellers.
“Imagine you pick 1 million random people from around the world every day,” said Toby McDade, chief investment officer of Momentum Fee Capital Management. “Some days, 51% would be in a good mood, 49% in a bad mood. The next day maybe it’s the opposite. Other days, random chance could mean 8% of people are really pissed off for no real reason. This is basically what the market is on a day-to-day basis,” he said.
Asked what his clients thought of this view, Mr. McDade laughed. “Oh my God, you think I could tell my clients that? How could I justify my salary?” Clients were told Monday’s gain was caused by a mix of reversing geopolitical instability, shifting uncertainty patterns, a risk-on atmosphere, and a perfect storm of beta meeting sigma. None knew what those words meant.
American corporations earned $4.62 billion of net income on Monday. Financial advisors, analysts, and brokers, collected $630 million in fees. No media outlet reported these figures, despite being the two most important numbers necessary to understanding investing.
A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the economy added 209,000 jobs last month. An economist from a right-leaning think tank called the report disappointing. Another at a left-leaning organization called it encouraging. Neither has a reputable track record. Both yelled. The jobs report has a margin of error of plus or minus 100,000, and will be revised seven times in the coming years. No one whose outlook was swayed by the report said they care about these details.
Marc Faber appeared on TV predicting a 20% stock market crash within the next six months, repeating a call he has made bi-weekly since the Carter administration. Another pundit explained that his last failed prediction would have been right if only he hadn’t been so wrong. Executives of financial TV networks met to discuss why ratings are at decade lows.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell from 2.42% to 2.38%. Nobody knows why.
An FDIC report showed banks increased lending last quarter. Analysts called this a new bubble created by the Fed, though it’s what any rational person would expect to see happening during a recovery after a deep recession.
In Nevada, 52-year-old Ronald Palmer put his life savings into gold after spending 10 minutes reading something on Google about inflation written by a guy who learned about inflation by spending 10 minutes on Google.
Nineteen-year-old Travis Baker spent the afternoon day-trading penny stocks because his prefrontal cortex isn’t yet fully developed and he couldn’t recognize risk-reward trade-offs if they hit him in the face.
An army of bloggers reported from their parents’ basements that Apple CEO Tim Cook doesn’t understand technology. Reached out to for comment, Cook giggled, shook his head, and said one of his main regrets in life is not taking the advice of unemployed anonymous bloggers.
Long-term investors finished Monday one day closer to their goals.
Analysts expect the news to be no different tomorrow.
Check back every Tuesday and Friday for Morgan Housel’s columns on finance and economics.
*This article is fake, but just barely.
#stock market update
Weekly Market Update (August 29 – September 02, 2016)
By Craig Fehr September 02, 2016
Stocks were modestly higher on the week, but the S P 500 has traded in a noticeably tight window over the last month and half. Markets advanced in response to August’s jobs report, but it wasn’t a large enough catalyst to push the market out of this summer’s doldrums. While markets have been steady recently, we think investors should not get complacent or expect the same level of stability going forward. History shows that sharp market moves occur frequently, and market corrections, defined as a 10% drop in stocks, have occurred more than once a year, on average. If you’re a long-term investor, you will likely experience many corrections, so prepare for unexpected episodes of volatility by ensuring you own the right mix of stocks and bonds that will allow you to stay invested and have the confidence to buy quality investments at lower prices when you have the opportunity.
Is the Economy Still Working? Three Takeaways From the Jobs Report
As September began, the center of attention for the markets was the August employment report – and rightfully so, as consumer spending comprises more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The report showed that the labor market remains reasonably healthy while also serving as a reminder that month-to-month figures will ebb and flow with the economic engine remaining in middle gear. Here are three takeaways from the latest U.S. jobs report:
- Jobs are still being created at a decent clip– 151,000 jobs were added in August, bringing the year-to-date total to slightly more than 1.4 million new jobs. Service-based industries and government payrolls were among the strongest last month, while construction and manufacturing hiring tailed off. The U.S. economy has added an average of 175,000 new jobs a month over the past six months, indicating that the labor market still remains fairly healthy. Sustained job growth, combined with the “gas dividend” from lower oil prices and the strengthening of the housing market, offers a sturdy wind at the back of the consumer, forming a solid foundation for further economic growth.
- Still some room for improvement – August’s job gains came in shy of consensus expectations 1 of 180,000, reflecting the rising optimism and strong hiring in the preceding months. Payrolls rose by a combined 546,000 in June and July, so some might view August as a disappointment. It’s worth remembering, though, that just 24,000 jobs were added in May, followed by an increase of 271,000 in June, so the broader trend is a more appropriate indicator than any one month’s reading. Nevertheless, while the six-month average of 175,000 is positive, it is down from an average of 232,000 in the preceding six-month period. Unemployment remained steady at an encouraging 4.9%, indicating the economy is not far from what could be considered “full employment.” However, the underemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor force as well as part-timers who would prefer to work full time, currently stands at 9.7%, suggesting there is still additional labor market improvement needed. Further, wage growth remains muted at just 2.4%. The next leg of the expansion and ongoing support for consumer confidence will likely need to be accompanied by slightly faster wage gains.
- Implications for the Fed– The market’s attention in recent weeks has shifted squarely to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and speculation around the precise timing of a rate hike. These employment figures, in our view, aren’t sufficiently strong or weak enough to convince the market (or the Fed) that a rate hike is guaranteed before year-end. August’s slightly slower job growth, along with the looming uncertainty of the elections in November (not to mention subdued inflation pressures), provides the cover for the Fed to remain on hold at its September meeting and target a December rate hike. That being said, we think the bigger picture around rate hikes is far more important than the debate around timing. The fact that the Fed is even considering a rate increase reflects the underlying health of the economy. Put simply, we don’t think a quarter-point hike would be the undoing of the improving course of U.S. economic growth. This is good news, as history shows us economic and corporate earnings growth is the most powerful influence on stock market performance over time.
Actions for Investors
- Talk to your financial advisor about addressing potential market volatility by rebalancing your mix of equity and fixed income back to the target that is aligned with your long-term investment strategy as appropriate.
- Enhance your diversification across a range of asset classes, including international investments, where appropriate. Developed-market large-cap equities appear attractive, economic conditions in Europe and elsewhere have shown signs of improvement, and central bank policies are likely to remain highly stimulative for some time. Additional diversification into small- and mid-cap stocks can also help position your portfolio over the long term.
- Be opportunistic. We expect market volatility to increase, but we also believe the economic growth and the broader bull market will remain intact. This can present timely opportunities to buy both stocks and bonds on pullbacks.
The Stock Bond Market
#the stock market
The stock market has already picked the next U.S. president
The GOP is traditionally known as the party of Wall Street, but this year investors, for the most part, are betting against the Republican standard-bearer.
“The market appears to have decided not only that [Hillary] Clinton will win, but that it won’t be close,” David Woo, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a report distributed Monday. “Investors like landslide victories.”
Woo noted that the S P 500 has risen more than 4% since July 5, which marks the beginning of the 90-trading-day countdown to the election on Nov. 8. During years when presidential candidates won by a margin of more than 80% of Electoral College votes, the S P 500 posted average returns of 8.4% in the 90 days leading up to the election, as this chart illustrates:
The last time stocks outperformed the current rally at the halfway point was when Ronald Reagan won in a landslide against Walter Mondale in 1984.
“To us, this implies that the market is expecting Hillary Clinton to either maintain or increase her already sizable lead over Donald Trump in the opinion polls,” Woo said, citing the Iowa Electronic Markets. an indicator giving Clinton an 80% chance of beating Trump.
The IEM is a futures market operated for research purposes by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business.
Earlier this year, Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the S P 500 SPX, +0.42% has a fairly good record of predicting election results.
Since 1944, the incumbent person or party was reelected 82% of the time when the S P 500 rose between July 31 and Oct. 31, according to Stovall. The only exceptions were in 1968 and 1980, when there were popular third-party candidates in the picture.
“Whenever the S P 500 fell in price during these three months, however, it signaled the replacement of the incumbent 86% of the time,” he said.
The latest polling numbers show Clinton leading Trump in most voter surveys, according to news and data aggregator RealClearPolitics.
The S P 500 hit a record high of 2,193.81 on Aug. 15 and is poised to extend its rally to six straight months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.39% also is flirting with a slight gain in August—which would be its seventh monthly rise in a row, according to FactSet.
Meanwhile, the market is also expecting a split Congress and very little change in policy, according to Woo.
The volatility of the euro-dollar pairing EURUSD, -0.3751% which the strategist views as a good proxy to measure the risk of change in the U.S. versus the rest of the world, is at a 2016 low, implying subdued expectations for policy change.
“The combination of a Democratic president and a split Congress likely means gridlock,” Woo said. “If this scenario materializes, the experience of the past six years suggests there is little chance of a major change in the fundamental economic policies of the most important country in the world in the foreseeable future.”
As a result, investors could expect lower interest rates and a weaker dollar. But in the event the same party wins the White House and control of Congress, the greenback will strengthen and rates will rise, Woo said.
Copyright 2016 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.
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80% Stock Market Crash To Strike in 2016, Economist Warns – The Sovereign Investor #what #is #the #stock #market
80% Stock Market Crash To Strike in 2016, Economist Warns
Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash.
Jim Rogers, who founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, went apocalyptic when he said, “A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans.”
Mark Faber, Dr. Doom himself, recently told CNBC that “investors are on the Titanic” and stocks are about to “endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.”
And the prophetic economist Andrew Smithers warns, “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”
Smithers backs up his prediction using a ratio which proves that the only time in history stocks were this risky was 1929 and 1999. And we all know what happened next. Stocks fell by 89% and 50%, respectively.
Even the Royal Bank of Scotland says the markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the 2008 crisis. They told their clients to Sell Everything because in a crowded hall, the exit doors are small.
Blue chip stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and IBM will plunge.
But there is one distinct warning that should send chills down your spine … that of James Dale Davidson. Davidson is the famed economist who correctly predicted the collapse of 1999 and 2007.
Davidson now warns, “There are three key economic indicators screaming SELL. They don’t imply that a 50% collapse is looming it’s already at our doorstep.”
And if Davidson calls for a 50% market correction, one should pay heed.
Editor s Note: American seniors have been worried about our nation s ability to continue to pay out Social Security. Leaked Reports.
Indeed, his predictions have been so accurate, he’s been invited to shake hands and counsel the likes of former presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton — and he’s had the good fortune to befriend and convene with George Bush Sr. Steve Forbes, Donald Trump, Margaret Thatcher, Sir Roger Douglas and even Boris Yeltsin.
They know that when Davidson makes a prediction, he backs it up. True to form, in a new controversial video, Davidson uses 20 unquestionable charts to prove his point that a 50% stock market crash is here.
Most alarming of all, is what Davidson says will cause the collapse. It has nothing to do with the China meltdown, Wall Street speculation or even the presidential election. Instead, it is linked back to a little-known economic “curse” that our Founding Fathers warned our elected officials about … a curse that was recently triggered.
And although our future may seem bleak, as Davidson says, “There is no need to fall victim to the future. If you are on the right side of what’s ahead, you could seize opportunities that come along once, maybe twice, in a lifetime.”
Perhaps most importantly, in this new video presentation, Davidson reveals what he and his family are doing to prepare right now. (It’s unconventional and even controversial, but proven to work.)
While Davidson intended the video for a private audience only, original viewers leaked it out and now thousands view this video every day.
One anonymous viewer wrote: “Davidson uses clear evidence that spells out the looming collapse, and he does it in a simple language that anyone can understand.” (Indeed, Davidson uses a sandcastle, a $5 bill, and straightforward analogies to prove his points.)
With his permission, I reposted the video on a private website. Click here to watch it now
Canadian Business – Your Source For Business News – Your source for market news, investing, technology, economy and Canadian industry #find #a #business
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Ahead of Wall Street
Friday September 2, 2016
(This is Brian Hamilton filling in for Mark Vickery while he is on vacation)
Stock futures inched forward today, as all eyes will be on this morning s unemployment rate, and nonfarm payrolls data. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.8% from 4.9%, and is seen as the last major hurdle for the Feds before they decide to raise rates or not during their September meeting.
Oil prices shot up overnight as Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he would like for Russia and OPEC to make a deal regarding a production cap. President Putin went on to say that he would likely support a plan to crimp production at the G20 summit in China next week. Lastly, Putin said that Russia is prepared to sell a 19.5% stake in Rosneft PJSC, the country s largest listed oil producer, as early as the end of 2016.
In Europe, producer prices in the euro region rose by +0.1%, the lowest monthly reading since April. Also, the European Union started their two day meetings today; the major issues being discussed are the fallout from the Brexit, and global banks attempting to preserve their access to the single market.
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