Tag: Been

The High Yield Bond Market Has Never Been This Decoupled From Reality #small #business

#bond market news

#

The High Yield Bond Market Has Never Been This Decoupled From Reality

Recovery rates in 2016 are extremely low.. for high-yield bonds, the recovery rate YTD is 10.3% (10.5% senior secured and 0.5% senior subordinate), which is well below the 25-year annual average of 41.4%. Final recovery rates in 2015 for high-yield bonds were 25.2%, compared with recoveries of 48.1%, 52.7%, 53.2%, 48.6%, and 41.0% in full-years 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010, respectively. Notably, average recoveries for Energy and Metals/Mining bonds were 18.3% and 20.0%, respectively, which weighed down overall high-yield recovery rates. Excluding the troubled commodity sectors, high-yield recoveries were a more respectable 46.1% (32.1% Ex-Energy only ). As for loans, recovery rates for first-lien loans thus far in 2016 are 24.5%, compared with their 18-year annual average of 67.2%. Final 2015 1st lien recoveries were 48.2%, while average recoveries for Energy and Metals/Mining 1st lien loans were 44.1% and 38.4%, respectively.

The record collapse in recovery rates is shown below.

It is not just JPM who points out what we first noticed in January: in an interview with Goldman s Allison Nathan, credit guru Edward Altman reiterates that same warning, although he focuses on the 2015 recovery rate which already is more than two times higher than that seen in 2016 defaults:

Allison Nathan: What is your view on recovery rates?

Edward Altman: Our approach to recovery rates is not centered on sectors. What we ve looked at carefully over 25 years is the correlation between default rates and recovery rates. As you would expect, when the former rise to high or above-average levels, you always observe the latter dropping to below-average levels. This strong inverse relationship is as much a function of supply and demand as it is of company fundamentals. So if we are expecting a higher default rate in 2016 and even 2017, then we would expect a lower recovery rate. Already in 2015, the recovery rate dropped dramatically relative to 2014 even though the default rate was below average; we saw a 33-34% recovery rate versus the historical average of 45%, measured as the price just after default. This is primarily due to the heavy concentration of energy companies whose recovery rates depend on their ability to liquidate their assets at reasonable prices, which in turn depends on the price of oil. Low oil prices have pushed recovery rates in the energy sector below 25% and even into the single digits for some companies. And that s going to continue. So this year I expect recovery rates much below average, producing a double-whammy of high default rates and low recovery rates for credit investors.

Since then recovery rates have dropped even further. BUT high-yield bond prices have surged on the back of ECB, BOE buying and the knock-on effects of $200 billion per month of experimentation by the world s central-planners.

Simply put, the revelation of a default event exposes the vast gap between real asset values (upon liquidation or bankruptcy) and the artificially supported prices seen in bond markets .

In the 30 year life of the so-called junk bond market, the chasm between reality and central-planner-created markets has never been wider.

Tags : , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boston Criminal Lawyer – Suffolk County Criminal Defense Attorney – Urbelis Law, LLC #urbelis

#

Boston Criminal Lawyer

Urbelis Law, LLC is a Boston-based criminal defense law firm representing individuals and businesses throughout the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. We also handle all federal criminal matters in the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts. Our firm is dedicated to not only understanding the facts and circumstances of your legal matter, but learning about you as a person. Our Boston criminal lawyers recognize that your case may have far-reaching collateral effects beyond what happens in court, and we customize our defense strategy based on your specific needs. If you want us to take it all the way to trial, we are more than willing to do so. In fact, our record demonstrates that we obtain “Not Guilty” verdicts on 90% of the cases we bring to trial. Of course, every case is unique. If the anxiety of your pending criminal matter is interfering with your ability to work or continue with your day to day life, or if your case would benefit from a resolution prior to trial, we will do everything in our power to reach the best possible outcome. We are here to listen to your situation and always provide a free initial consultation. Since many arrests and criminal matters arise during non-business hours, we are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The sooner you contact our office, the sooner we can fight for you.

From relatively minor misdemeanor offenses to major felonies, the Boston criminal attorneys at Urbelis Law have extensive experience handling every type of criminal matter in Massachusetts. In addition to our highly successful trial practice, we help clients navigate the ins and outs and potential collateral effects of their cases. We will handle an RMV hearing stemming from a misdemeanor criminal charge with the same vigor employed during a Sex Offender Registry Board matter as the result of a felony sexual assault charge. In addition to fully advising you of the strengths and weaknesses of taking your case to trial, you will always be apprised of your options short of trial (working out a deal), the consequences of your decisions, and the collateral effects associated with all potential outcomes. All of your bases are covered, and you will never be left in the dark, at Urbelis Law.

In addition to vigorously representing our clients throughout the various stages of their Massachusetts criminal cases, we provide that same dedication to help prevent criminal charges before they are officially filed. Whether you are concerned about being investigated for a crime, or you have been contacted by the police who are requesting an interview at the station, or perhaps you’ve received an application for a criminal complaint and don’t know where to turn. Don’t panic. We are here to help. It is important that you contact our office as soon as you have these concerns, because these situations are very time-sensitive and must be handled before they spiral out of control. Let us help prevent or minimize the damage. That’s what we do.

Given that many arrests occur during non-business hours, our Boston criminal lawyers are prepared to provide you with a free initial consultation 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. If you were arrested over the weekend, we are prepared to meet with you right away to answer your questions and provide you with peace of mind before going in to your Monday morning arraignment in court. In most cases, you should be prepared to retain a defense attorney prior to the arraignment to ensure that all necessary paperwork is obtained from the government and your rights are protected from the onset of your criminal case. In more serious cases, or if you are already on probation for an open case, you should absolutely be represented by an attorney at the arraignment as the prosecution is likely to ask that you either be held on bail, have the bail revoked on your open case and have you detained for up to 90 days, or have you held as a “dangerous person ” for up to 120 days. In this situation, if you’re convinced that you can’t afford an attorney, you’re doing yourself a major injustice. The truth is, you can’t afford NOT to have an attorney. With no obligation to hire us after your initial consultation, you certainly having nothing to lose by calling!

Contact our office for your free initial consultation regarding your Massachusetts criminal matter:

Tags : , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Your access to this site has been limited #women #business #loans

#business partnership

#

Your access to this site has been limited

Your access to this service has been temporarily limited. Please try again in a few minutes. (HTTP response code 503)

Reason: Access from your area has been temporarily limited for security reasons

Important note for site admins: If you are the administrator of this website note that your access has been limited because you broke one of the Wordfence firewall rules. The reason your access was limited is: “Access from your area has been temporarily limited for security reasons”.

If this is a false positive, meaning that your access to your own site has been limited incorrectly, then you will need to regain access to your site, go to the Wordfence “options” page, go to the section for Rate Limiting Rules and disable the rule that caused you to be blocked. For example, if you were blocked because it was detected that you are a fake Google crawler, then disable the rule that blocks fake google crawlers. Or if you were blocked because you were accessing your site too quickly, then increase the number of accesses allowed per minute.

If you’re still having trouble, then simply disable the Wordfence firewall and you will still benefit from the other security features that Wordfence provides.

If you are a site administrator and have been accidentally locked out, please enter your email in the box below and click “Send”. If the email address you enter belongs to a known site administrator or someone set to receive Wordfence alerts, we will send you an email to help you regain access. Please read this FAQ entry if this does not work.

This response was generated by Wordfence.

Tags : , , , , , , ,

The High Yield Bond Market Has Never Been This Decoupled From Reality #personal #business

#bond market news

#

The High Yield Bond Market Has Never Been This Decoupled From Reality

Recovery rates in 2016 are extremely low.. for high-yield bonds, the recovery rate YTD is 10.3% (10.5% senior secured and 0.5% senior subordinate), which is well below the 25-year annual average of 41.4%. Final recovery rates in 2015 for high-yield bonds were 25.2%, compared with recoveries of 48.1%, 52.7%, 53.2%, 48.6%, and 41.0% in full-years 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010, respectively. Notably, average recoveries for Energy and Metals/Mining bonds were 18.3% and 20.0%, respectively, which weighed down overall high-yield recovery rates. Excluding the troubled commodity sectors, high-yield recoveries were a more respectable 46.1% (32.1% Ex-Energy only ). As for loans, recovery rates for first-lien loans thus far in 2016 are 24.5%, compared with their 18-year annual average of 67.2%. Final 2015 1st lien recoveries were 48.2%, while average recoveries for Energy and Metals/Mining 1st lien loans were 44.1% and 38.4%, respectively.

The record collapse in recovery rates is shown below.

It is not just JPM who points out what we first noticed in January: in an interview with Goldman s Allison Nathan, credit guru Edward Altman reiterates that same warning, although he focuses on the 2015 recovery rate which already is more than two times higher than that seen in 2016 defaults:

Allison Nathan: What is your view on recovery rates?

Edward Altman: Our approach to recovery rates is not centered on sectors. What we ve looked at carefully over 25 years is the correlation between default rates and recovery rates. As you would expect, when the former rise to high or above-average levels, you always observe the latter dropping to below-average levels. This strong inverse relationship is as much a function of supply and demand as it is of company fundamentals. So if we are expecting a higher default rate in 2016 and even 2017, then we would expect a lower recovery rate. Already in 2015, the recovery rate dropped dramatically relative to 2014 even though the default rate was below average; we saw a 33-34% recovery rate versus the historical average of 45%, measured as the price just after default. This is primarily due to the heavy concentration of energy companies whose recovery rates depend on their ability to liquidate their assets at reasonable prices, which in turn depends on the price of oil. Low oil prices have pushed recovery rates in the energy sector below 25% and even into the single digits for some companies. And that s going to continue. So this year I expect recovery rates much below average, producing a double-whammy of high default rates and low recovery rates for credit investors.

Since then recovery rates have dropped even further. BUT high-yield bond prices have surged on the back of ECB, BOE buying and the knock-on effects of $200 billion per month of experimentation by the world s central-planners.

Simply put, the revelation of a default event exposes the vast gap between real asset values (upon liquidation or bankruptcy) and the artificially supported prices seen in bond markets .

In the 30 year life of the so-called junk bond market, the chasm between reality and central-planner-created markets has never been wider.

Tags : , , , , , , , , , , ,

Your access to this site has been limited #business #card

#business partnership

#

Your access to this site has been limited

Your access to this service has been temporarily limited. Please try again in a few minutes. (HTTP response code 503)

Reason: Access from your area has been temporarily limited for security reasons

Important note for site admins: If you are the administrator of this website note that your access has been limited because you broke one of the Wordfence firewall rules. The reason your access was limited is: “Access from your area has been temporarily limited for security reasons”.

If this is a false positive, meaning that your access to your own site has been limited incorrectly, then you will need to regain access to your site, go to the Wordfence “options” page, go to the section for Rate Limiting Rules and disable the rule that caused you to be blocked. For example, if you were blocked because it was detected that you are a fake Google crawler, then disable the rule that blocks fake google crawlers. Or if you were blocked because you were accessing your site too quickly, then increase the number of accesses allowed per minute.

If you’re still having trouble, then simply disable the Wordfence firewall and you will still benefit from the other security features that Wordfence provides.

If you are a site administrator and have been accidentally locked out, please enter your email in the box below and click “Send”. If the email address you enter belongs to a known site administrator or someone set to receive Wordfence alerts, we will send you an email to help you regain access. Please read this FAQ entry if this does not work.

This response was generated by Wordfence.

Tags : , , , , , , ,

The High Yield Bond Market Has Never Been This Decoupled From Reality #business #reports

#bond market news

#

The High Yield Bond Market Has Never Been This Decoupled From Reality

Recovery rates in 2016 are extremely low.. for high-yield bonds, the recovery rate YTD is 10.3% (10.5% senior secured and 0.5% senior subordinate), which is well below the 25-year annual average of 41.4%. Final recovery rates in 2015 for high-yield bonds were 25.2%, compared with recoveries of 48.1%, 52.7%, 53.2%, 48.6%, and 41.0% in full-years 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010, respectively. Notably, average recoveries for Energy and Metals/Mining bonds were 18.3% and 20.0%, respectively, which weighed down overall high-yield recovery rates. Excluding the troubled commodity sectors, high-yield recoveries were a more respectable 46.1% (32.1% Ex-Energy only ). As for loans, recovery rates for first-lien loans thus far in 2016 are 24.5%, compared with their 18-year annual average of 67.2%. Final 2015 1st lien recoveries were 48.2%, while average recoveries for Energy and Metals/Mining 1st lien loans were 44.1% and 38.4%, respectively.

The record collapse in recovery rates is shown below.

It is not just JPM who points out what we first noticed in January: in an interview with Goldman s Allison Nathan, credit guru Edward Altman reiterates that same warning, although he focuses on the 2015 recovery rate which already is more than two times higher than that seen in 2016 defaults:

Allison Nathan: What is your view on recovery rates?

Edward Altman: Our approach to recovery rates is not centered on sectors. What we ve looked at carefully over 25 years is the correlation between default rates and recovery rates. As you would expect, when the former rise to high or above-average levels, you always observe the latter dropping to below-average levels. This strong inverse relationship is as much a function of supply and demand as it is of company fundamentals. So if we are expecting a higher default rate in 2016 and even 2017, then we would expect a lower recovery rate. Already in 2015, the recovery rate dropped dramatically relative to 2014 even though the default rate was below average; we saw a 33-34% recovery rate versus the historical average of 45%, measured as the price just after default. This is primarily due to the heavy concentration of energy companies whose recovery rates depend on their ability to liquidate their assets at reasonable prices, which in turn depends on the price of oil. Low oil prices have pushed recovery rates in the energy sector below 25% and even into the single digits for some companies. And that s going to continue. So this year I expect recovery rates much below average, producing a double-whammy of high default rates and low recovery rates for credit investors.

Since then recovery rates have dropped even further. BUT high-yield bond prices have surged on the back of ECB, BOE buying and the knock-on effects of $200 billion per month of experimentation by the world s central-planners.

Simply put, the revelation of a default event exposes the vast gap between real asset values (upon liquidation or bankruptcy) and the artificially supported prices seen in bond markets .

In the 30 year life of the so-called junk bond market, the chasm between reality and central-planner-created markets has never been wider.

Tags : , , , , , , , , , , ,