Your access to this site has been limited
Your access to this service has been temporarily limited. Please try again in a few minutes. (HTTP response code 503)
Reason: Access from your area has been temporarily limited for security reasons
Important note for site admins: If you are the administrator of this website note that your access has been limited because you broke one of the Wordfence firewall rules. The reason your access was limited is: “Access from your area has been temporarily limited for security reasons”.
If this is a false positive, meaning that your access to your own site has been limited incorrectly, then you will need to regain access to your site, go to the Wordfence “options” page, go to the section for Rate Limiting Rules and disable the rule that caused you to be blocked. For example, if you were blocked because it was detected that you are a fake Google crawler, then disable the rule that blocks fake google crawlers. Or if you were blocked because you were accessing your site too quickly, then increase the number of accesses allowed per minute.
If you’re still having trouble, then simply disable the Wordfence firewall and you will still benefit from the other security features that Wordfence provides.
If you are a site administrator and have been accidentally locked out, please enter your email in the box below and click “Send”. If the email address you enter belongs to a known site administrator or someone set to receive Wordfence alerts, we will send you an email to help you regain access. Please read this FAQ entry if this does not work.
This response was generated by Wordfence.
#bond market news
The High Yield Bond Market Has Never Been This Decoupled From Reality
Recovery rates in 2016 are extremely low.. for high-yield bonds, the recovery rate YTD is 10.3% (10.5% senior secured and 0.5% senior subordinate), which is well below the 25-year annual average of 41.4%. Final recovery rates in 2015 for high-yield bonds were 25.2%, compared with recoveries of 48.1%, 52.7%, 53.2%, 48.6%, and 41.0% in full-years 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010, respectively. Notably, average recoveries for Energy and Metals/Mining bonds were 18.3% and 20.0%, respectively, which weighed down overall high-yield recovery rates. Excluding the troubled commodity sectors, high-yield recoveries were a more respectable 46.1% (32.1% Ex-Energy only ). As for loans, recovery rates for first-lien loans thus far in 2016 are 24.5%, compared with their 18-year annual average of 67.2%. Final 2015 1st lien recoveries were 48.2%, while average recoveries for Energy and Metals/Mining 1st lien loans were 44.1% and 38.4%, respectively.
The record collapse in recovery rates is shown below.
It is not just JPM who points out what we first noticed in January: in an interview with Goldman s Allison Nathan, credit guru Edward Altman reiterates that same warning, although he focuses on the 2015 recovery rate which already is more than two times higher than that seen in 2016 defaults:
Allison Nathan: What is your view on recovery rates?
Edward Altman: Our approach to recovery rates is not centered on sectors. What we ve looked at carefully over 25 years is the correlation between default rates and recovery rates. As you would expect, when the former rise to high or above-average levels, you always observe the latter dropping to below-average levels. This strong inverse relationship is as much a function of supply and demand as it is of company fundamentals. So if we are expecting a higher default rate in 2016 and even 2017, then we would expect a lower recovery rate. Already in 2015, the recovery rate dropped dramatically relative to 2014 even though the default rate was below average; we saw a 33-34% recovery rate versus the historical average of 45%, measured as the price just after default. This is primarily due to the heavy concentration of energy companies whose recovery rates depend on their ability to liquidate their assets at reasonable prices, which in turn depends on the price of oil. Low oil prices have pushed recovery rates in the energy sector below 25% and even into the single digits for some companies. And that s going to continue. So this year I expect recovery rates much below average, producing a double-whammy of high default rates and low recovery rates for credit investors.
Since then recovery rates have dropped even further. BUT high-yield bond prices have surged on the back of ECB, BOE buying and the knock-on effects of $200 billion per month of experimentation by the world s central-planners.
Simply put, the revelation of a default event exposes the vast gap between real asset values (upon liquidation or bankruptcy) and the artificially supported prices seen in bond markets .
In the 30 year life of the so-called junk bond market, the chasm between reality and central-planner-created markets has never been wider.